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[RateGap](/)every home loan rate lenders publish, compared

# Before you fix your rate, check what the loan rolls onto afterwards

Your lender does not advertise that rate. But it gives it away in the comparison
  rate, and almost nobody reads it that way. I checked every Australian lender that publishes its
  home loan rates.

[Justin Wong](/about), first published 17 August 2026.
    The figures are read again every morning.

When a fixed term ends, your loan rolls onto a variable rate set by your contract. No lender
  advertises what that rate will be. Most of the time it is nothing to worry about:
  **77% of the 627 fixed loans I looked
  at roll onto *less* than the fixed rate they advertise.** At today's prices that is
  a small drop, not a shock.

But **50 of them roll onto more than a full percentage point above their own
  advertised rate.** Here is how to spot those. Put the comparison rate next to the
  advertised rate. If the comparison rate is more than about half a point higher, the loan rolls
  onto a high rate.

It flags **50 of those 50**, which is arithmetic
  rather than a good hit rate. Over 25 years, a rate a full point above the advertised one cannot
  help but show in the comparison rate. The number worth reading is the other one. Across the
  577 loans that roll onto something reasonable, the rule cries wolf 27
  times.

**Be clear about what this is.** It is arithmetic, not a
  prediction. By law the comparison rate assumes a 25-year loan. So a three-year fixed rate's
  comparison rate is already three years at the advertised rate, blended with twenty-two years at
  whatever comes after. The rate you roll onto was never hidden. It was folded into a number
  your lender must publish, and I am reading it back out.

## What this looks like in real life

Maitland Mutual Limited offers two fixed loans to people buying a home to live in, borrowing
  up to 95% of the value. Fixed for three years, they advertise rates within a tenth of a point of each other.

  | Loan | Advertised | Comparison | Rolls onto |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Package Home Loan | 6.44% | 6.87% | 6.55% |
| Standard Home Loan | 6.54% | 8.19% | 8.90% |

All but the same advertised rate.
  **2.35 percentage points apart** once the three years are up. On a
  $500,000 loan that is about $11,767 a year in interest. The
  comparison rate is the only published number that tells them apart before you sign.

## What loans roll onto, next to their own fixed rate

      rolls onto less than the fixed rate
      **
      426

      about the same (within 0.25)
      **
      104

      0.25 – 1.00 points higher
      **
      47

      1.00 – 2.00 points higher
      **
      44

      more than 2.00 points higher
      **
      6

627 fixed loans from 66 lenders — for a home you live in,
  paying principal and interest, fixed for three years. The typical loan rolls onto
  0.52 percentage points
  below its own advertised rate.

## The loans that jump the most

  | Lender | Loan | Amount borrowed | Advertised | Comparison | Rolls onto |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [People First and Heritage Bank](/lender/people-first-and-heritage-bank) | Standard Fixed Rate Home Loans - Owner Occupied | up to 95% of the value | 6.54% | 8.32% | 8.97% |
| [Maitland Mutual Limited](/lender/maitland-mutual-limited) | Standard Home Loan | up to 95% of the value | 6.54% | 8.19% | 8.90% |
| [Bankwest](/lender/bankwest) | Fixed Rate Home Loan | up to 80% of the value | 6.99% | 8.63% | 9.16% |
| [Newcastle Permanent](/lender/newcastle-permanent) | Fixed Rate Home Loan Principal and Interest | up to 80% of the value | 6.49% | 7.94% | 8.52% |
| [Newcastle Permanent](/lender/newcastle-permanent) | Fixed Rate Home Loan Principal and Interest | up to 80% of the value | 6.49% | 7.94% | 8.52% |
| [Newcastle Permanent](/lender/newcastle-permanent) | Fixed Rate Home Loan Principal and Interest | up to 80% of the value | 6.49% | 7.83% | 8.52% |
| [MyState Bank](/lender/mystate-bank) | Fixed Rate Loan | 70.01–80% of the value | 6.74% | 8.10% | 8.69% |
| [MyState Bank](/lender/mystate-bank) | Fixed Rate Loan | up to 70% of the value | 6.69% | 8.09% | 8.61% |
| [Newcastle Permanent](/lender/newcastle-permanent) | Fixed Rate Home Loan Principal and Interest | 80–95% of the value | 6.59% | 7.97% | 8.51% |
| [Newcastle Permanent](/lender/newcastle-permanent) | Fixed Rate Home Loan Principal and Interest | 80–95% of the value | 6.59% | 7.97% | 8.51% |

The test flags every loan here. In each one the comparison rate sits well above
  the advertised rate, and what the loan rolls onto is what that gap is telling you about.

## How I worked this out

The law sets out exactly how a comparison rate must be calculated: a $150,000 loan paid off
  over 25 years. A fixed rate cannot cover all 25 years, so the sum has to assume something about
  the rest of them. Once you know the advertised rate, the fixed term and the published comparison
  rate, that assumption is the only thing left unknown — so you can work backwards to it.

Two things are really unknown: the rate the loan rolls onto, and its annual fee. They leave
  opposite fingerprints across a lender's range of fixed terms. The longer the term, the less a fee
  moves the comparison rate, and the more the roll-on rate moves it. So I solve for both at once,
  by finding the pair that makes a lender's one to five year terms agree with each other. How
  closely those terms agree is the margin of error. Across this sample they agree to within
  0.009 of a percentage point.

The real test is against numbers I never used. The sum never looks at a single variable rate,
  yet the answers it produces should land on variable rates the same lenders publish. This morning they do. Apollo's 6 owner-occupied lines work out to
    6.36, 6.36, 6.41, 6.41, 6.46, 6.46, against published variable rates of
    6.34, 6.34, 6.39, 6.39, 6.44, 6.44. Athena Home Loans' 6 owner-occupied lines work out to
    6.24, 6.24, 6.27, 6.27, 6.29, 6.29, against published variable rates of
    6.24, 6.24, 6.29, 6.29, 6.29, 6.29.

## What this does not tell you

**It is not a prediction.** These are today's rates. Fix for three years today and
  you meet your lender's variable rate in 2029, not this one. What this tells you is which rate your
  contract points at — the standard variable rate, or a discounted one. It cannot tell you what that
  rate will be by the time you get there.

**It comes out of the comparison rate.** I work the roll-on rate out from the
  comparison rate, so "the comparison rate spots the bad ones" is close to going in a circle. That
  is not the point. The point is that the answer was published all along, and almost nobody reads it
  this way.

**A bigger fee does not mean a better rate later.** At Westpac and Bankwest the
  dearer packaged loan rolls onto far less, and it is tempting to think the fee is buying you that.
  But across every lender offering loans with very different fees for the same amount borrowed, the
  dearer one rolls onto less only about a third of the time. Do not assume the expensive one is
  looking after you.

**Not every loan rolls onto the standard variable rate.** Some contracts point at
  whatever discounted rate applies at the time. Where my figure sits well above anything the lender
  currently sells, read it as the most they could charge rather than the rate you would actually
  meet. Lenders also cut rates when you ask, which published data cannot see.

**Loans I cannot tell apart are left out, not guessed at.** The sum needs three or
  more fixed terms on the same loan. Where a lender publishes several loans in one band and the
  published details cannot separate them, I leave them out.

This is general information about published rates. It is not financial or credit
  advice, and not a recommendation of any loan or lender. These figures are worked out from what
  lenders publish, and they may be wrong. Check anything that matters with the lender or your own
  adviser before you act on it.

Worked out live from the rate data every Australian lender has to publish by law.
  [Check your own loan](/).

I have also measured [what lenders charge
  once you owe more than 80%](/research/lvr-bands). [The data behind both](/data) is free to
  download.

The other questions

        - [Are you paying more than you need to?](/)
              your rate against every lender publishing one- [How fast should you pay it off?](/paying-it-off)
              term, extra repayments, interest only- [Don't have a loan yet?](/buying)
              what to look at before you pick one- [What does each lender advertise?](/lenders)
              every lender that publishes rates, a page each- [What moved this week?](/market/changes-this-week)
              which lenders changed an advertised rate- [Where do these numbers come from?](/data)
              every published rate, and how fresh it is